Market Studies

Distressed conditions in the commercial real estate market combined with historically low interest rates present an opportunity for small business owners looking to grow their businesses, but many are finding themselves locked out of potential deals. According to the results of a nationwide survey published by CIT Group Inc., nearly one in five small business owners say they don't have the cash to cover the down payment needed to secure a traditional bank loan for acquiring commercial real estate.

The analysts at Capital Economics say that dreaded double-dip is already underway, in both housing activity and residential property prices. The research firm is forecasting home prices in the United States to steadily decline over the next 12 months and have fallen back by over 5 percent by the end of next year, taking them to a new cycle low. The company's analysts say there are currently about 1.5 million too many homes up for sale, and that excess supply will likely grow by another 4.9 million due to elevated foreclosure activity.

Mortgage rates are still incredibly low by historical standards. They've been fluctuating around record lows not seen in more than a half-century for a good many months now. This week was one where that movement was upward, according to industry data released Thursday. A nationwide survey conducted by Freddie Mac found that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 4.23 percent, while 15-year rates edged up to 3.66 percent. Bankrate reports that the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate reversed last week's decline, returning to 5.10 percent.

Data released by RealtyTrac Thursday shows that foreclosure activity rose in 65 percent of the nation's major metropolitan areas during the third quarter. Cities in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona once again claimed the nation's highest foreclosure rates, accounting for 19 of the 20 metros at the top of RealtyTrac's list. The only exception was Boise City-Nampa, Idaho. However, the largest increases in foreclosure filings were reported from Seattle, Chicago, and Houston.

Home loan production is expected to come in below $1 trillion for the 2011 calendar year, according to figures released this week by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). If the trade group's projections pan out, it will be the industry's lowest level of home lending volume in 14 years. MBA's economists say next year's drop will be driven by a decline in refinance originations as mortgage rates head higher, but the industry will see an increase in purchase originations.

Industry data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Wednesday shows that consumer demand for home loans intensified last week as mortgage interest rates dropped to their second-lowest level on record. MBA says its measurement of total mortgage loan application volume rose 3.2 percent for the week ending October 22, after dipping more than 10 percent the week before.

The proportion of foreclosure and other distressed property sales continued to climb in September, with damaged REO experiencing the sharpest rise, according to a report released this week by Campbell Surveys. The company says the new data suggests that any significant delay in foreclosures resulting from the recent legal controversy surrounding paperwork accuracy could have major repercussions for the housing market in the coming months.

Home prices across the country slipped in August, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. The agency's closely-watched gauge of residential property values recorded a 0.1 percent drop in the composite reading of 10 cities tracked, while the 20-city composite posted a 0.2 percent decline. Home prices decreased in 15 of the survey's 20 metropolitan statistical areas on a month-to-month basis. Only Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, and Washington D.C. posted what S&P called ""marginal improvements.""

Home prices in the U.S. declined 1.5 percent in August compared to a year earlier, CoreLogic reported Monday. It's the first time this year the company's index has recorded an annual drop. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, warned that price declines are expanding geographically. Seventy-eight of the largest 100 metros included in the firm's study posted lower prices in August. CoreLogic's assessment is in line with what's expected to be a downward trajectory for home prices in the months ahead.

The Treasury Department released its monthly progress report on the administration's flagship foreclosure-prevention program Monday, and the results show that the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is continuing to lose steam. Servicers completed just 28,000 permanent HAMP mods during the month of September - 16 percent fewer than the previous month. More than half of all mortgage mods initiated under HAMP have been terminated, but officials say the program's ""rigorous standards"" mean better post-mod performance.