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San Francisco and San Jose Approaching Pre-Crash Highs

SanFranciscoThe most recent Home Value Forecast (HVF) Monthly Housing Report by Pro Teck caught its readers with a bit of a surprise. There were some new additions to the company’s top 10 list of core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) that saw value gains this month, and two dominant CBSAs dropped off the list since the first time in 2017—San Francisco and San Jose.

Despite not making the cut, San Francisco and San Jose still maintain their top two positions for the highest average selling price. San Francisco showed a 59 percent increase in average home price compared to pre-crash high to $1.35 million and San Jose showed 4 percent increase to $1.1 million. This trajectory in average selling price mimicked the average household income for the two cities. The average household income recorded for Q1 2018 for San Francisco is $114,063 marking an increase of 49.5 percent, while the increase for San Jose is 41.5 percent. Tom O'Grady, CEO Pro Teck, concluded, “they are still hot markets.”

Increase in average household income is not the only factor affecting the HVF; Pro Teck also takes into account affordability by calculating as the average mortgage payment needed to buy an average priced home. Both San Francisco and San Jose hit bubble territory (meaning home value highs not seen since 2005-2007) marking an all-time low for affordability.

DS News examined bubble trends in its December 2017 cover story “Housing Bubble 2.0.” In it, writer Nicole Casperson spoke with CoreLogic CEO, Frank Nothaft who noted similar regional bubble concerns. “While economists may not foresee a housing bubble on a national level, bubbles may occur in localized markets, as they have in the past if the right elements are at play,” said Nothaft.

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