Mortgage Delinquency: “Signs of Emerging Stress in Some States”

CoreLogic found that as of June 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate fell 0.1 percentage points from June 2018 to 0.4%—tied with the past seven months as the lowest for any month since January 1999.

Overall, the national share of mortgages that were in some stage of delinquency was 4% in June 2019—a 0.3 percentage point decline, compared to last year’s 4.3%. 

The share of mortgages that are delinquent more than 90 days fell from 1.2% to 0.9%, and the percentage of mortgages that were more than 120 days delinquent dropped to 1% from 1.4% in June 2018. 

“A strong economy and eight-plus years of home price growth have made mortgage foreclosure an infrequent event,” said Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “This backdrop will help the mortgage market limit delinquencies in most of the country whenever a downturn should start.”1

Mortgages delinquent between 30 and 59 days rose marginally from 2% last year to 2.1% in 2019. 

Of the metros studied, the New York-Newark-New Jersey metro had the highest serious delinquency rate of 2.6%. The metro also had the highest overall foreclosure rate at 1.3%.

The next highest was Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida, at 2%. 

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colorado, and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California, had the lowest serious delinquency rate at 0.4%. 

According to PropertyShark, Manhattan foreclosure cases were up 118% year-over-year during Q3 2019, while Staten Island Island cases increased by 183%. Despite the large spike in Manhattan, the number of properties foreclosed only risen from 22 to 48 compared to the same period year. Meanwhile, foreclosure activity in the Bronx dropped by 51%, while Queens saw a 10% dip in unique cases year-over-year.

Of the 48 cases this quarter in Manhattan, 25 of foreclosures were mortgage foreclosures. Only once in the past cycle has Manhattan had more foreclosures than in Q3 2019, and that was in Q4 2016. Additionally, pre-foreclosures increased 13% year-over-year in the borough.

CoreLogic revealed the following states to seen an increase in delinquent activity: Vermont (0.7%); New Hampshire (0.3%); Nebraska (0.2%); and Minnesota (0.2%). Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Connecticut all posted marginal gains of 0.1%.