New York Fed Study Points to Decline in Problem Loans in First Quarter

The ""Federal Reserve Bank of New York"":http://www.newyorkfed.org says it's seeing ""signs of healing"" in consumer credit markets, as evidenced by a decline in new foreclosures, bankruptcies, and mortgage delinquencies during the first three months of this year.
[IMAGE] About 368,000 individuals had a foreclosure notation added to their credit reports between December 31 and March 31, according to the New York Fed's ""first-quarter study"":http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/national_economy/householdcredit/DistrictReport_Q12011.pdf. That tally represents a 17.7 percent decrease from the previous quarter's new foreclosures.

At the same time, new bankruptcies noted on credit reports fell 13.3 percent, dropping from 500,000 in the fourth quarter of last year to 434,000 in the first quarter of 2011. Reported bankruptcies during the first three months of this year were 6.4 percent below year-ago levels.

About 2.4 percent of current mortgage balances transitioned into delinquency during Q1, the second straight quarterly improvement in this measure, according to the New York Fed.

The rate of transition from early (30-60 days) into serious (90 days or more) delinquency among mortgage loans also

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continued its trend of what Fed officials described as slow but steady improvement.

The early-to-serious delinquency roll rate fell from 30 percent in the fourth quarter to 28 percent in the first quarter. The Fed says this is the lowest rate it has recorded for this measure since the third quarter of 2007.

The report also notes that this improvement was accompanied by a higher cure rate with the transition rate from early delinquency to current increasing during the first three months of the year.

While many of the national trends observed in the New York Fed's latest study are present in most areas of the country, the report indicates a wide scope of diversity in the data for certain states hit hardest by the housing downturn.

For example, data for Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada continue to indicate higher than average delinquency and foreclosure rates, but Fed officials found that these rates are falling faster on average than in the rest of the country.

""We are beginning to see signs of credit markets healing gradually and evidence of greater willingness of consumers to borrow and banks to lend,"" said Andrew Haughwout, VP and New York Fed research economist.

The first-quarter study shows that mortgage originations during the January to March period continued to increase for a third consecutive quarter, with $499 billion in credit extended for new mortgage loans.

While mortgage originations in the first quarter were 65 percent above their 2008Q4 trough and 31 percent above their level of a year ago, they remain 34 percent below their average levels of 2003-2007, according to the New York Federal Reserve.