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Initial Unemployment Claims Drop to Four Year Low

First time claims for unemployment insurance fell 5,000 to 348,000, a four-year low in the week ended March 17 and the second straight weekly decline, the ""Labor Department"":http://www.dol.gov/ reported Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised upward, to 353,000 from 351,000, making the decline larger. The last time initial claims fell below 350,000 was in April 2008.

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This report covered the same week used by the ""Bureau of Labor Statistics"":http://www.bls.gov/ in its survey for the monthly employment situation report, which includes the unemployment rate. That report for March will be released on April 6. There were 353,000 initial unemployment insurance claims for the mid-February ""reference week,"" so the month-month improvement is a good sign for the upcoming unemployment rate report.

Continuing claims, reported on a one-week lag, also fell, dropping 9,000 to 3,352,000 for the week ended March 10, after dropping 63,000 one week earlier. Continuing claims reflect the other part of the employment picture, hinting at hiring.

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The four week moving average for initial claims improved to 355,000, down 1,250 from the previous week, while the four week average for continuing claims declined 13,000 to 3,385,750.

Initial claims have been on a declining trend since last September, confirming that the pace of layoffs has slowed. Continuing claims are also declining, but the underlying reasons are not as clear. To be sure, some of the decline could be attributed to individuals finding jobs, but also to the exhaustion of regular benefits, which lasts for 26 weeks.

The number of people collecting benefits under the federal extended and emergency unemployment insurance programs â€" reported on a two-week lag â€"dropped a net 16,000, while the total number of individuals receiving benefits under all programs fell 142,499. That tally includes data from non-seasonally adjusted reports making conclusions less certain.

The total number of people collecting benefits under all programs was 7,281,451. The number of people receiving emergency and extended benefits declined as expected as Congress capped the length of emergency programs. According to the latest BLS report, 7.24 million people were officially counted as unemployed.

According to the Labor Department detail, also reported on a one-week lag, the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 10 were in Kentucky (+742), Puerto Rico (+643), Alabama (+475), North Carolina (+471), and Tennessee (+457), while the largest decreases were in New York (-14,222), California (-4,696), Illinois (-1,290), Florida (-1,215), and Pennsylvania (-1,129).

About Author: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.
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