Research Firm Issues Five-Year Mortgage Lending Forecasts

""iEmergent"":http://www.iemergent.com, a Des Moines, Iowa-based market research, forecasting, and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage, and real estate industries, today issued its Mortgage Volume Forecasts for 2009 - 2013. The company's projections include iEmergent's Market Behavior Metrics tables, in order to provide lenders details on the size, density, and speed of the growth of mortgage lending opportunities.
The forecasts provide lending details regarding expected loan volumes at the national, state, county, and local community levels. According to iEmergent, they also provide lenders data needed to assess mortgage lending opportunities, develop business strategies, make growth decisions, and estimate the strengths and weaknesses of their current positions in distinct markets. The company's forecast tables can be configured to represent the markets of interest to any type or size of mortgage lender, iEmergent explained in a press statement.
%{=FONT-STYLE: italic; TEXT-DECORATION: underline}Highlights of iEmergent's 2009 home financing forecasts include:%
- Total purchase volume:
   - 4.29 million loans for $707.7 billion
- Refinance volume range:
   - Low - 3.29 million loans for $575 billion
   - High - 3.66 million loans for $640 billion
- Total mortgage volume:
   - Low - 7.58 million loans for $1.283 trillion
   - High - 7.95 million loans for $1.348 trillion
The 2009 forecast represents a five percent slide in volume from current 2008 end-of-year estimates. iEmergent explained that the local impact varies widely as lending trends continue to undergo significant shifts in many individual markets while remaining solid and stable in others.
Based on its forecasting data, iEmergent estimates that purchase mortgage lending volumes will bottom out in late 2009. The company says the rates at which individual markets generate purchase mortgages will dip to levels not seen since the early 1990s and are not expected to recover long-term historical trends until 2012.
""We expect the total volume to reach the bottom in 2009 and turn upward in 2010, but lenders should be prepared for volumes in many of their local markets and communities to drop even further if the recession deepens, unemployment levels continue to rise, home prices fail to stabilize, and consumer confidence remains dismal,"" explained Dennis Hedlund, president of iEmergent.
Hedlund says, though, that periods of increased uncertainty and volatility such as the industry is experiencing now, are precisely the times to become more focused on local market dynamics, not less. According to Hedlund, his company's predictions of 4.3 million purchase loans and 7.5 million total mortgage transactions for next year is not a total collapse.
""Lenders have had plenty of time the past 24 months to look inward and re-structure, reduce costs, and improve their efficiency to match the new reality,"" Hedlund said. ""Now it is time for them to look outward and tailor their lending strategies to the local markets where they need to compete effectively.""
Capturing home buyers at the local level requires more than just personal intuition or knowing the last two quarters’ loan counts, he said. ""Knowing and anticipating how the size, density, and long-term growth rates of the lending opportunities in local communities and home buyer segments are likely to change in the future will be crucial if they [lenders] expect to improve profit performance and sustain their growth during these challenging times,"" Hedlund said.
For more information about iEmergent and its five-year forecasts, ""click here"":http://www.iemergent.com.