Tag Archives: Home Prices

Existing home sales rose an unexpected 6.5 percent in to an annual sales rate of 5.48 million, the highest level since August 2007 ten months before the onset of the Great Recession -- the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected existing home sales to drop to 5.

The Housing Market Index (HMI), a measure of builder confidence, stalled at 58 in September, unchanged from August’s downwardly revised reading, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday. The August confidence reading had originally been 59. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the index to remain at that level. But a dip in one of the three index components--the outlook for new home sales six months out--pulled the reading down slightly.

Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey for August shows more people are optimistic about price gains over the next year (55 percent, up from 53 percent), though the average expected gain has pulled back slightly to 3.4 percent (compared to July's high of 3.9 percent). The share of people expecting prices to fall bounced up to 7 percent from July's low of 6 percent. The company explained that consumers' attitudes have hit a plateau ""due to concerns regarding the potential tapering of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases.""

August price gains were reminiscent of those last seen during the peak of the bubble--but analysts at Clear Capital insist there's nothing to fear at this point. ""With the continued strengthening of home price trends in August, the need for perspective on market activity is even more important,"" said Dr. Alex Villacorta, VP of research and analytics at Clear Capital. Looking under the surface trends, Villacorta notes the low-tier price segment of the housing market saw quarterly gains of 2.0 percent, indicating a more moderate growth path.

CoreLogic reported 2.5 million homes returned to positive equity in Q2 2013, leaving 7.1 million underwater. Of the 41.5 million residential properties with positive equity, an estimated 10.3 million are ""under-equitied,"" meaning they have less than 20 percent equity. Because of that, those borrowers may have a more difficult time obtaining new financing for their home due to underwriting constraints. Meanwhile, 1.7 million properties had less than 5 percent equity, qualifying them as ""near-negative equity.""

In Capital Economics' latest edition of US Housing Market Analyst, property economist Paul Diggle notes investor activity has fallen off nearly one-fifth over the last four months, with investor sales dropping to 18 percent as inventory of distressed homes declines. On the other hand, the ongoing rise in prices has encouraged more sellers to enter the market, which should temper further gains. ""With sellers motivated by the earlier rise in house prices, we expect the loosening in supply conditions to go much further over the next year,"" Diggle said.

The National Association of Home Builders' Improving Markets Index--a list of areas showing sustained improvement in employment, home prices, and housing permits--reached a record high of 291 in September, according to release. ""While there is still plenty of room for growth, this is an excellent indication of how the housing recovery has begun to take hold across more geographical areas,"" ""said Rick Judson, chairman of the NAHB and a home builder from Charlotte, North Carolina.

For its most recent quarterly report, Redfin surveyed 1,772 active homebuyers across the 22 markets it covers. Respondents hailed from all over the country. Out of those polled, 56 percent said rising rates have impacted their ability to buy a home ""somewhat,"" while an additional 7 percent said rates are impacting them ""a lot."" In addition, more homebuyers pointed to rising mortgage rates as one of their major concerns with buying a home right now.

While August's employment situation report was less than robust (with a staggering reduction in July's revised payrolls), it wasn't the first set of data to suggest trouble on the horizon for the housing recovery. The Case-Shiller home price index for June--the most recent--showed continuing, albeit slower, house price gains, pushing affordable homeownership still further from low paid workers. That is, until the numbers change again.

As mortgage rates climb, refinances are on the decline. However, refinances through the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) remain elevated compared to last year's volumes, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Refinance Report for the second quarter of 2013. HARP refinances totaled about 280,000 for the quarter, down slightly from about 290,000 in the first quarter of this year, FHFA reported.