Tag Archives: Housing Affordability

Existing-home sales translate to an annual rate of 5.12 million at the October sales pace, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). October's sales volume was down 3.2 percent from September and marked the second consecutive month of declining transactions. NAR blames low inventory, diminished buying power from rising prices and interest rates, and a restrictive credit environment for the drop in sales.

It's no secret underwriting standards have tightened in recent years, and while many decry the heightened standards for making homeownership less accessible to some Americans, an economist with CoreLogic points out in a report released Wednesday that heightened standards are, without question, impacting delinquencies for the better, with 2013 vintage loans carrying a serious delinquency rate of just six basis points.

Housing affordability took a hit in the third quarter--the result of climbing interest rates and recovering home prices. According to an industry index assessing consumers' opportunities for homeownership, families earning the national median income of $64,400 in the July-September period could afford 64.5 percent of the new and existing homes sold during that time. That's down from 69.3 percent in the second quarter, marking the biggest index decline since Q2 2004.

Though the slow rate of household formation among millenials--those born after 1980--has been cause for alarm among some economists, analysts at Moody's Investors Service say reports of a lost generation of homebuyers are overblown. The Census Bureau released its homeownership rate report for the third quarter in early November, revealing homeownership in the 35 and younger age group is growing at a sluggish pace, with 31.6 percent still living with their parents.

Speaking at the 2013 Realtors Conference & Expo, National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun predicted steadiness in existing-home sales over the next year as prices continue to ascend. Yun expects existing-home sales to rise by about 10 percent in 2013 to reach 5.13 million. The national median existing-home price is projected to end this year at about $197,000, 11 percent higher than in 2012.

While home price gains continue to exceed historical norms at the national level, the latest study by Trulia reveals marked differences in appreciation between predominantly Republican and predominantly Democratic metros. The company says home prices are skyrocketing in many of America's bluest metros, like Oakland and Detroit, while the home-price rebound seems to have bypassed most of America's reddest metros.

Both large institutional and smaller ""mom and pop"" investors have been very active purchasing homes at a steep discount, primarily in housing-bust markets. Industry reports attribute anywhere from 33 to 49 percent of September's home purchases to investors. Whether one-third or nearly one-half of the market, investors are the key force driving home prices, which could signal volatility in coming quarters.

Over the past year, home prices have risen 16 percent and mortgage rates have climbed from 3.7 percent to 4.43 percent, all while incomes have risen by just 3 percent, according to Bankrate's Interest.com website. These diverging trends have led to a decline in affordability across the nation. In all of the nation's 25 largest metros, it's less likely buyers can afford a home this year compared to last year.

September's pending home sales point to a slow quarter during the final three months of the year. The National Association of Realtors says the numbers show buyers are struggling with declining levels of housing affordability. The trade group's pending sales index is a forward-looking indicator that's based on contract signings, not closings, and it has now fallen for four straight months.

According to RE/MAX's National Housing Report for September, closed transactions fell 18.5 percent month-over-month, in line with the typical trend as summer passes into autumn. Year-over-year, however sales increased 10.7 percent, making September the 27th consecutive month in which sales rose on an annual basis. The company also reported a slowdown in the rate of inventory decline.