Tag Archives: Interest rates

Interest rates nearly took center stage in this banking testimony as Chair Yellen noted that the domestic economy is “pretty strong” and the “gradual rise in rates should not derail the housing market. Employment is going up, income is going up, and If the labor market improves, inflation will move up. December sounds incrementally more likely, but hinges on jobs reports.”

In a speech in Florida on Thursday, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart discussed what the country's current economic conditions suggest would be the appropriate path for monetary policy to take.

While some policymakers argued that raising interest rates at the end of the fiscal year would help normalize the economy as inflation creeps back to 2 percent, others argued that declines in energy prices and the growing strength of the dollar would curtail inflation and that a later rate hike would make more sense.

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it intends to take a slow approach to raising interest rates in the coming year, even as the economy continues to strengthen. Given the current climate, the committee hinted that it will take steps to raise short-term interest rates in 2015, though it still would not commit to a timeframe, saying only that "it will likely be appropriate to maintain ... the [current] federal funds rate for a considerable period of time."

In their latest economic projections from June, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected a median federal funds rate of 1 percent at year-end 2015 and 2.5 percent at the end of 2016. Based on their own modeling, the analysts say investors put the probability of the federal funds rate hitting the FOMC's target next year at 31 percent, with 2016's projected rate having a 27 percent probability.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its latest Refinance Report, looking at data from the first quarter of 2014. The government agency reported that in Q1 2014, approximately 77,000 refinances were completed through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), bringing the total refinances through HARP to 3.1 million since the program's inception.

Consumer sentiment retreated last month to an index reading of 80.0, down 2 percent from February’s 81.6 but an improvement on last year’s 78.6, according to a report released by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center.

Larry Baer joins the broadcast to discuss forecasting interest rates, high/low cycles and monetization of forecasts.

[ca_audio url_mp3='http://blogtalk.vo.llnwd.net/o23/show/5/714/show_5714081.mp3' css_class='codeart-google-mp3-player' autoplay='false' download='false' html5='false']Behind the Curtain – A look at the two simple engines that drive every change in the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates. Larry Baer is the founder and president of Market Alert, Inc. – ...

[ca_audio url_mp3='http://blogtalk.vo.llnwd.net/o23/show/4/442/show_4442411.mp3' css_class='codeart-google-mp3-player' autoplay='false' download='false' html5='false']Thomas Showalter, the Chief Analytics Officer of Digital Risk, will discuss how to identify and manage two historically known forms of risk as well as a new type of risk that is prevalent and misunderstood ...