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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Permits, Starts Data Show Shift to Multifamily

Housing permits rose a sharp 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000 in February to the highest level since June 2008, while housing starts edged up 0.8 percent to 917,000, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly Tuesday. Most--almost 62 percent--of the increase in permits came in applications to build multifamily units.

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Builder Confidence Sinks to 5-Month Low Despite Tighter Inventory

Builder confidence slipped in March to 44, the lowest level since October, the National Association of Home Builders Monday. Economists had expected the Housing Market Index, the measure of confidence, to improve to 47 from February's reading of 46. It was the second straight monthly decline in the index and the third straight month the index failed to increase (it was flat from December to January). Tighter inventories had been expected to improve confidence, but builder attitudes have also been weighed down by prices of new single-family homes.

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Commentary: Budget Pains

It's been two weeks since the dreaded sequester took effect, and so far, the only casualty has been the White House tour. There actually have been some positives, with both parties presenting budgets. However, both the GOP budget and the Democratic plan have one major similarity: Each is dead on arrival and destined to at best be a one-house budget, which leaves the country back where it was. Setting a target for practical balance would bring us closer to reducing the deficit and with less pain.

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First-Time and Continuing Jobless Claims Fall Again

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 332,000 for the week ending March 9, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected 350,000 initial unemployment claims. The drop in filings--the third in the last four weeks--resumed a downward trend in layoffs.

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Gasoline Sales Boost February Retail Activity

Led by a surge in gasoline prices, retail sales rose 1.1 percent in February, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. Economists had expected an increase of 0.5 percent. In January, retails sales rose 0.2 percent. Gasoline station sales rose 5.0 percent in February after a 0.7 percent increase in January.

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January Layoffs Drop to Record Low

The number of layoffs fell 4.0 percent to 1,507,000 in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) release, which details the ins and out of the labor market. The layoff total was the smallest since the JOLTS reports began in December 2000. At the same time, BLS said, the number of job openings rose 2.2 percent in January to 3,693,000, which meant there were 3.34 unemployed people for every job opening--a slight improvement from 3.38 in December.

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Commentary: Go With The Flow

Perhaps the most important piece of economic news in the last few days was not the continued drop in the unemployment rate or the positive blurbs in the Beige Book or even the Dow reaching a new record high, but Thursday's quarterly Flow of Funds report. According to the report for Q4 2012, household assets grew to $79.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1.3 trillion--not too shabby. Household financial assets were up $784 billion to $54.4 billion but home equity (the value of household real estate less loans against that real estate) grew $452.8 billion, the result of two moving parts: real estate values (which increased) and household mortgage liabilities, which dropped.

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Economy Adds 236K Jobs in February; Unemployment Rate Slips

The economy added 236,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists had forecast payrolls would grow by 160,000, and that the unemployment rate would drop to 7.8 percent. Job growth for December, originally reported at 196,000, was revised upward to 219,000, while January was revised down to 119,000 from the originally reported 157,000. One concern from the report was the number of multiple jobholders, which increased 340,000. This means new jobs went to an individual already employed, making the decline in the unemployment rate even more significant.

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Commentary: Impact of Sequestration–People Will Die

The sad fact of the budget sequestration being played out in Washington is how avoidable it was. The sadder fact is that however temporary it might prove to be--and that appears from a distance to be more of a wish than a forecast--it will affect real people, and not well. The effects of sequestration go beyond the impact of jobs loss because defense or other contractors are not hired or because federal workers are furloughed. The effects will put even more homeowners at risk of delinquency, or worse, foreclosure, just at a time when the housing sector is recovering.

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Personal Income Plunges in January; Spending Up

Personal income dropped $505.5 billion, or 3.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) fell $491.4 billion, or 4.0 percent, in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.2 billion, or 0.2 percent in January. In December, personal income increased $353.4 billion, or 2.6 percent, DPI increased $325.7 billion, or 2.7 percent, and PCE increased $14.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

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