Market Studies

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reported today that, although pending home sales in the state fell from March to April, other statistics indicate a good start for the housing market. C.A.R.'s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell from a revised 138.9 in March to 128.0 in April. This index was nearly 14 points higher than the revised 114.4 index from April 2011, marking the 12th consecutive month that pending sales were higher year-over-year. Pending home sales figures are often used as an indicator of the market's future direction.

With low rates and low prices, homeowner affordability continues to hit record levels, reaching another high for the first quarter of 2012, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). During the previous record-breaking 2011 fourth quarter, 75.9 percent of homes sold were affordable to median-income earners. For this most recent quarter, HOI data showed 77.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the national median income of $65,000.

The take on the state of the housing market, according to Capital Economics, is that the U.S. is currently in recovery mode. Although other reports may contend the bottom is yet to be reached, the research firm points to increasing home sales and the drop in excess supply, which leads to price gains, as reasons to believe the U.S. is beyond bottoming out. Data released on Tuesday from the National Association of Realtors backs what Capital Economics had to say. The NAR reported a rise in existing home sales in April after a two-month drop and a rise in prices. Even with positive reports on the housing market, the question of how long this will last still remains.

Existing-home sales rose to 4.62 million (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in April from an downwardly revised March rate of 4.47 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast the April sales pace would be 4.66 million. The median price of an existing home climbed 10.1 percent to $177,400 from $161,100 in April 2011, the strongest year-to-year gain since January 2006. The median price in April reached its highest level since July 2010 when it was $182,100. The median price of an existing home rose month-to-month and year-to-year in all four regions.

Through the $25 billion robo-signing settlement between federal and state officials and the five largest banks - Bank of America, Citi, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Ally - $10 billion was set aside for principal reductions. According Fitch Ratings, the funds set aside for writing down principal will have little impact on private label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Fitch stated that the private label result of principal reduction through the settlement will likely reach only 10 percent of underwater borrowers. Overall, Fitch estimates there is about $203 billion in negative equity for private-label RMBS.

Lender Processing Services (LPS) provided a peak into month-end data for mortgage performance in April 2012, and reported after 9 months of declines, mortgage delinquencies increased. The total delinquency rate for loans 30 days or more past due but not in foreclosure was 7.12 percent, a 0.4 percent month-over-month increase. Compared to a year ago, the delinquency rate was down by 10.6 percent.

The report, put together by IHS U.S. Regional Economist Steven Frable, stated that Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, and Louisiana have all reached or passed their prerecession employment levels, with Alaska and North Dakota reporting peak employment in 2010-11. These four states are also experiencing the most benefits from the current energy boom. Many other states have bounced almost all the way back, coming within 1 percent of their employment peaks.

If the buzz about bidding wars is true, Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey reported those accounts did not boost prices in its findings. Homes are selling below the list price, and if a home is subject to a bidding war, the high offer becomes quashed by lower appraisals. According to the report, homes sold in April received only two or three offers, and average home prices declined slightly from March to April.

According to a survey conducted by Money Management International, struggling homeowners are reluctant to seek professional mortgage relief help. The survey found that half of respondents would first seek help from a family member or friend.

While the housing market is starting to show signs that it is strengthening, for some states, recovery still seems to be in the very distant future. According to a report from Capital Economics, one factor that will determine the speed of recovery for individual states is the type of foreclosure procedure. Paul Diggle, author of the report, said that many of the judicial states, which are struggling to clear their backlog of foreclosures, will lag behind during recovery. However, Rob Pitingolo, research assistant with the Urban Institute, noted that it's not the judicial process itself that is the problem, but a lack of resources.