Market Studies

The RE/MAX: National Housing Report found that the national median home price rose for the third straight month in April, indicating that the housing recovery in 2012 is continuing. The report surveyed 53 metropolitan areas and found that the median home price was $161,000, 3.2 percent higher than in March and 5.9 percent higher than in April 2011. February marked the first time in 18 months that home prices experienced an increase, and data from March and April shows a positive trend.

Fitch Ratings released a report projecting another 7.8 percent drop in U.S. home prices before the market reaches sustainability, according to the rating agency's fourth quarter sustainable home price (SHP) report. This is a decrease from last quarter's prediction of a 9.1 percent drop. As long as economic growth is steady and inflation runs close to 3 percent annually, Fitch believes home prices will finally hit bottom in late 2013, and then move towards a slow recovery.

While the U.S. housing market appears to be on the road to recovery, it will be a rather patchy one, with some regions seeing home prices rise as high as 5 percent and others falling flat, according to a report released from the Demand Institute, which is jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. According to the report, three variables will indicate the speed of recovery for individual states: state-level unemployment rates, the proportion of foreclosure inventory relative to total inventory, and the extent of recent price declines.

According to numbers released by DataQuick, last month's home sales numbers in Southern California experienced a modest climb from last year. Median home sales prices in Southland rose year-over-year in April for the first time in 16 months. The median price paid for a home in Southland was $290,000 this year, up from $280,000 in March 2012 and April 2011. This increase is attributed to gains in the region's coastal counties, where home sales made up 71.5 percent of the area's total, an increase from last year's 68 percent. Also cited as cause for this year's higher numbers is the fact that foreclosed and discounted properties made up a smaller portion of sales.

Just when it seemed like they could not fall any further, fixed-rate mortgages continued to drop, breaking record-low numbers once again, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage market survey. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.79 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending May 17, slipping from last week's average of 3.83 percent. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also fell, ending the week at 3.04 percent (0.7 point). Bankrate.com, which releases a weekly survey using data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets, reported a record-low average for the 30-year fixed, which dropped below 4 percent.

First time claims were unchanged at 370,000 for the week ended May 12 after the number of initial claims filed for the previous week was revised upward, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists had expected initial claims would decrease to 365,000. The Labor Department had initially reported 367,000 claims filed for the week ended May 5. The revision turned that report to an increase of 2,000 from a previously reported decline of 1,000. Continuing claims - reported on a one week lag - increased 18,000 to 3,265,000 after the preceding week's report was bumped up to 3,247,000 from an originally reported 3,269,000, coincidentally another 18,000 increase from the original report.

Foreclosure filings - default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions - totaled 188,780 in April 2012, which is the lowest monthly total since July 2007, according to RealtyTrac's Foreclosure Market Report. April foreclosure activity also fell 5 percent from the previous month and was down 14 percent from a year ago in April. When analyzing foreclosure activity according to judicial processes, non-judicial states declined both yearly and monthly, while judicial states decreased monthly but not yearly.

Buying a home is the biggest financial investment many people will ever make. It's also an investment that, in recent years, has become lost for millions. According to data from CoreLogic, since September 2008, there have been 3.5 million completed foreclosures. Through counseling, HUD found homeowners are more likely to stay in their properties, even when facing foreclosure. HUD released reports on two types of counseling: pre-purchase and foreclosure prevention. In both studies, HUD found housing counseling significantly improved the likelihood homeowners remained in their homes. For those who enrolled into pre-purchase counseling, HUD found that 35 percent of participants became homeowners within 18 months of pre-purchase counseling and only one of those buyers fell behind on mortgage payments.

On a national level, delinquency rates and foreclosure starts decreased on a quarterly and yearly basis in the first quarter of 2012, with foreclosure inventory the exception, which increased slightly compared to the previous quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The delinquency rate was 7.40 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the 2011 fourth quarter rate of 7.58 percent and the year ago quarter's 8.32 percent. Foreclosure inventory, on the other hand, saw a small quarterly increase of 1 basis point after ending at 4.39 percent in the 2012 first quarter.

Housing permits dipped in April for the first time in four months, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Wednesday but housing starts improved. Both indicators remained far above year-earlier levels. The month-over-month increase in starts in April appeared still larger because of a downward revision to March's report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected permits to drop month-over-month and starts to increase.