Market Studies

The economy added 115,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent. With an upward revision of 53,000, March's payroll growth is now 159,000. Economists expected payrolls to grow by 165,000 for April. The government sector cut 15,000 jobs, and the private sector added 130,000 jobs. With these reported numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economists from IHS Global Insight, Capital Economics, and Fannie Mae provided their own analysis on what the numbers really mean and what they may indicate for the future.

The nation added 115,000 jobs in April, far below expectations and a drop from March’s revised payroll growth of 154,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The closely watched unemployment rate dipped again to 8.1 percent – its lowest level since January 2009 (7.8 percent) when President Obama took office – a function of a sharp drop in the nation’s labor force. Payroll gains for February and March were revised, adding 19,000 to the February numbers and 34,000 to March. The average workweek remained at 34.5 hours – still below the level when the recession began in December 2007 (34.6) and average hourly earnings improved by one cent. The number of people not in the labor force increased, as both the number of people employed and unemployed declined.

While reports on home prices have been mostly uninspiring, with some flickering of hope here and there, rent prices continue to make significant strides, with rent increasing more than 10 percent compared to a year ago in certain markets, according to findings Trulia released Thursday. Rent prices rose 5.6 percent in April compared to a year ago during the same month, Trulia reported. Good news was also in store for asking prices, which compared to the previous month of March, increased 0.5 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Homebuyer affordability is even greater now with the fixed mortgage rates slipping to new record lows, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.84 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending May 3, down from the previous record low of 3.87 percent on February 9, 2012. The 15-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.07 percent (0.7 point), also below its all-time record low when it was 3.11 percent April 12 of this year.

First time claims fell a surprising 27,000 to 365,000 for the week ended April 28, the Labor Department reported Thursday after revisions drove the prior week’s report up by 4,000 to 392,000, the highest level in five months. Economists had expected initial claims would decrease to 378,000.

The Arizona capital of Phoenix was one of the hardest hit markets by the housing crisis, with home values plunging nearly 60 percent from 2006 through mid-2011 and foreclosure filings soaring. One analyst says it wasn't too long ago that Phoenix was considered ground zero of the housing market's collapse, but now, it's on a path to recovery that's considerably outpaced other distressed markets. So what's going on in the Valley of the Sun that's strong enough to lift the nation's sixth most populous city from the depths of the downturn?

Total delinquent first mortgage balances are under $500 billion in March 2012, the lowest since January 2009, according to Equifax's March National Consumer Credit Trends Report and Creditforecast.com, a joint product of Equifax and Moody's Analytics. As of March 2012, the number of outstanding first mortgages was 49.5 million, a nearly 11 percent decrease from the March 2008 peak when it reached more than 55 million. According to the report, the decline was caused by high foreclosures, loan payoffs, and low homebuyer demand.

While delinquencies saw a decline and reached their lowest level since August 2008, foreclosure inventory stayed near historic highs, according to data from the March Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services (LPS). The rate for delinquencies was 7.09 percent in March, down 6.3 percent when compared to the previous month and down 8.8 percent compared to a year ago in March. When broken down by judicial processes, non-judicial states had a significantly lower rate of properties in foreclosure inventory at 2.45 percent, while judicial states were above the national average at 6.51 percent.

Just two months after matching its lowest reading in a year, the Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate reversed course and is now close to matching the highest reading of all time. At 9.80 percent, the April 2012 rate for 30-day plus delinquencies is just 8 basis points shy of the July 2011 record when it was 9.88 percent, according to Trepp, a provider of information, analytics and technology to the CMBS, commercial real estate, and banking markets. April's rate jumped 12 basis points from March after already increasing 31 basis points from the month before in February.

Year-over-year, the number of completed foreclosures decreased about 19 percent to 69,000 in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011, according to CoreLogic's National Foreclosure Report for March. Month-over-month, with the number of completed foreclosures in February 2012 at 66,000, foreclosures increased about 4.5 percent in March 2012. In addition to the yearly decrease in completed foreclosures, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 6 percent, or 100,000, in March 2012 compared to the year before.