Market Studies

According to the Zillow Home Value Forecast, prices are projected to fall 0.4 percent over the next year, but not all markets are expected to see this decline, with several already appearing to have reached bottom. Of the 30 metro areas covered by the Zillow forecast, 19 are expected to, or already have hit their lowest point in 2012, with nowhere else to go but up. Metro areas that are expected to see significant gains following their low point in the next 12 months include Phoenix, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, and Tampa, according to the forecast.

FHFA's house price index showed a monthly increase of 0.3 percent in February and a 0.4 percent increase compared to a year ago. This marks the first 12-month gain since the July 2006 - July 2007 yearly increase. The FHFA index uses purchase prices of houses backing mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insight, pointed out in a report that unlike FHFA indexes, Case-Shiller includes all transactions and, he said, GSE mortgages are in much better shape than other mortgages overall.

New homes sales fell 7.1 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 328,000, the steepest percentage decline since February 2011, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Tuesday. Sales for January were revised upward from 313,000 to 353,000. Economists had expected the report to show a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 318,000 new home sales in March. New home sales in March were up 7.5 percent from March 2011.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes fell for the sixth straight month in February with the 10- and 20-city indices each dropping 0.8 percent from January, Standard & Poor's, which compiles the indexes, reported Tuesday morning. The 10-city index slid to its lowest level since May 2003 and the 20-city index dropped to its lowest level since October 2002. Prices fell in 16 of the 20 cities surveyed, improving month-month in only Miami, Phoenix and San Diego. Prices were unchanged month-month in Dallas. Prices were down year-year in 15 of the 20 cities, improving only in Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix.

The number of submissions for mortgage loan fraud suspicious activity reports (MLF SARs) for the full year of 2011 increased by 31 percent, or to 92,028, according to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). In 2010, 70,472 reports were submitted. Over the past several years, MLF SAR filings have been increasing on a yearly basis, with only 4,695 filings in 2001. In 2005, the number of filings made an upward climb to 25,988, then more than doubled 2009, when there were 67,507 filings.

Inventory is shrinking and traffic for homebuyers seems to be increasing, but according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey, home prices were down in March. One reason for this, according to the survey, which includes about 2,500 real estate agents, is the high number of distressed properties - short sale properties in particular - on the market. Prices for damaged REO properties saw a 5.7 percent decline in prices between March 2010 and March 2011, according to the survey, while move-in ready REO prices fell 2.5 percent during the same period. Prices on short sales, however, dropped 14.3 percent during the one-year period.

According to a March 2012 housing report released by RE/MAX, home prices have risen for the second month in a row now on a year-over-year basis. The RE/MAX report included 53 metro areas and found the median price in March was $184,525, a 7.3 percent price increase from February, and a 5.8 percent increase from a year ago in March 2011. A consecutive increase on a year-over-year basis has not occurred since August 2010, according to the report.

Pursuing a short sale is often thought of as a painstaking process, and it's not uncommon to hear of complaints about slow responses from banks and last minute rejections on offers. Fortunately, not all lenders/servicers are the same when it comes to dealing with short sales, and RealtyTrac compiled a list of data revealing which institutions seem to move through the process quicker and for less. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA had the shortest timelines at 193 days in January 2012, a decrease compared to a year ago in January 2011, when short sales averaged 248 days. The short sale timeline includes the time a property starts the foreclosure process to the time it's sold as a pre-foreclosure property.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday that existing home sales decreased 2.6 percent, in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million units, falling short of the 4.62 million economists had forecast. In response to this data, economists representing different institutions provided their insight to explain what the recent numbers might indicate.

With the number of short sales increasing and even outnumbering REO sales in certain states, experts are speculating short sales might become key to preventing an even greater swelling of foreclosed properties on the market. Compared to a year ago in January 2012, pre-foreclosure sales, which are typically short sales, increased 33 percent, according to a RealtyTrac report released Thursday. Short sales even outpaced bank-owned REO sales in 12 states, including Utah, California, Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, New York and New Jersey.