Market Studies

After hitting near record lows last week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved up for the first time in three weeks, according to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac. The 30-year rate averaged 3.95 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending February 23, up from last week's average at 3.87. The rate is still lower than the average of 4.95 percent from a year ago at this time.

First time claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged at 351,000 for the week ended February 18, as the four-year record low number filings one week earlier were revised upward, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. Continuing claims, reported on a one-week lag, fell 52,000 - the fourth drop in the six weeks this year - and the first time continuing claims have been below 3,400,000 since August 2008. The initial claims report covered the “reference week” used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in developing the monthly employment situation report release and the unemployment rate.

Freddie Mac sees cautious signs of improvement in the housing market and overall economy and expects more warmth in 2013, according to its latest monthly outlook. ""The US economy continues to build on the momentum from the end of last year,"" said Freddie Mac VP and chief economist, Frank Nothaft. Positive signs Freddie cites include job gains, declining unemployment, and high affordability.

HomeValueForecast.com released a report on housing market trends, which highlighted two main findings: most Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) are in the weak or soft category, but the majority of CBSAs had more positive than negative market trends. The ranking was developed based on single family home markets in the top 200 CBSA. Market indicators include average active market time, average listing price, and number of foreclosure sales. The market trend indicators are forward-looking, and so having more positive indicators forecasts improving conditions in a high percentage of the CBSAs.

In response to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday, experts overall agreed market is heading towards recovery but advised certain factors need to be taken into consideration when analyzing the data. In response to the 4.3 percent month-over-month increase in January for existing-home sales, Capital Economics stated that it is not quite as encouraging as it first appears given that it comes at the expense of a 5 percent downward revision to the previous month's figures.

Existing-home sales rose in January for the third time in the last four months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). January sales completed transactions were up 4.3 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million. January sales – completed transactions – were up 4.3 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million. December's total was revised downward to 4.38 million from 4.61 million. The January 2012 sales pace was up 0.7 percent from January 2011.

New data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) shows that as of the end of January, there were 6,082,000 mortgages in the U.S. going unpaid. That tally includes loans that are 30 or more days delinquent and loans in foreclosure. The national delinquency rate as of January month-end was 7.97 percent. Delinquencies registered a decline, both for the month and the year. The industry's foreclosure inventory, however, rose to 4.15 percent, as newly initiated foreclosures spiked.

Moderate Growth Projected for the Year Overall, growth is expected to continue for the year, but at a modest rate, according to the Fannie Mae February 2012 Economic Outlook report. Economic growth is projected to be at 2.3 percent for 2012, an increase compared to 1.6 percent last year, according to the report. For the first time in seven years, the housing market is projected to contribute to gross domestic product (GDP, but by a very modest amount.

Realtor.com released its list of the top ten turnaround towns for the 2011 fourth quarter. While the ten towns listed - eight of which are in Florida - suffered from high foreclosure rates, they are now rebounding. Miami, Florida, at number one, had sales of existing single-family homes shoot up 51 percent in the third quarter compared to a year ago, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. The turnaround list was developed based on year-over-year price appreciation, reductions in year-over-year median age of inventory, and declines in inventory levels.

An audit of San Francisco foreclosures conducted by county officials revealed documentation errors were evident in nearly all of the cases examined. Auditors reviewed 382 case files that resulted in a foreclosure sale between January 2009 and October 2011. They identified one or more irregularities in 99 percent of the loans and one or more violations of state law in 84 percent. San Francisco's Office of the Assessor‐Recorder says it hopes to open a dialogue on the importance of compliance with state laws so that corrective action can be taken.