Market Studies

Local reports indicate investors have been snapping up more foreclosure and REO homes in recent months, and a new industry survey suggests they are poised to become an even bigger presence. According to Move, Inc., real estate investors will be more active in their local markets by a three-to-one margin compared to typical homebuyers over the next 24 months. The company says today's investor doesn't fit the common stereotype. Fifty percent plan to hold their properties for five-plus years, and three-fourths plan to combine cash and credit for a buy.

Home prices in the U.S. continue to tumble as foreclosures claim a larger share of the market. Residential prices slipped 2.5 percent during the first quarter of this year when compared to the previous quarter, according to a national index calculated using sales prices from mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The index shows prices fell 5.5 percent between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. It's the largest annual drop recorded since the second quarter of 2009.

Freddie Mac released the results of its latest mortgage rate survey on Thursday, which shows slower economic activity pushing fixed-rate mortgages slightly lower for the sixth consecutive week. The GSE says the 30-year mortgage is now averaging 4.60 percent and the 15-year rate is at 3.78 percent -- both new lows for 2011. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also dropped this week.

RealtyTrac has released a new report detailing foreclosure sales activity during the first quarter. Altogether, third parties purchased a total of 158,434 bank-owned and short sale homes during the first three months of this year. That's down 36 percent from a year earlier. At this pace, it would take three years to clear the current inventory of properties already on the banks' books or in foreclosure. REOs sold at an average discount of 35 percent in Q1, while short sale properties carried a mark-down of nearly 9 percent.

With millions falling behind on their mortgage payments and declining property values eating away at home equity, short sales are increasingly being looked to as an alternative to foreclosure. CoreLogic says the number of short sales has tripled in the last two years, and they're expected to increase another 25 percent in 2011. Such growth, though, can open the gate for fraudulent activity. CoreLogic estimates lenders, servicers, and investors may incur potential losses in excess of $375 million this year from ""suspicious"" short sales.

Data released by the FDIC Tuesday show that lenders' are seeing considerable improvement in the quality of loans and becoming more confident that fewer borrowers will default. First-quarter loan loss provisions totaled $20.7 billion, less than half the $51.6 billion set aside to cover bad loans a year ago, and loans and leases 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status fell for a fourth consecutive quarter. At the same time, though, the number of banks on the FDIC's so-called ""problem list"" is at its highest level since 1993.

Consumers who only defaulted on their mortgage during the economic recession pose far less of a risk than consumers who went delinquent on multiple credit accounts, according to TransUnion. The credit bureau says its study showed that consumers with mortgage-only defaults performed better on new loans than those with multiple delinquencies, and this was evident across all credit scoring ranges. TransUnion also says it found no evidence that borrowers who stopped paying their mortgage had an increased cash flow in the short term.

Prices on U.S. commercial real estate fell 4.2 percent in March, according to a national index released by Moody's Investors Service this week. The latest drop brings the index down to its lowest level since its peak in October 2007. A high volume of distressed transactions are weighing on price performance, Moody's says. However, the agency's analysts note that they've seen a pick-up recently in the number of deals trading hands overall, which they see as a positive sign for the commercial real estate market as it sets the stage for recovery.

California's distressed home sales dropped in April for the second consecutive month, according to the state's local Realtors group. The California Association of Realtors reports that the total share of all distressed property types sold statewide - including REOs and short sales - declined to 48 percent, down from 51 percent in March. The group says bargain hunters and investors were joined last month by homebuyers who are timing their decisions to coincide with the start of the spring season and targeting more non-distressed properties.

First-time homebuyers - a segment that typically targets distressed homes - currently make up just one-third of the market, according to the research firm Campbell Surveys. While this is what would be considered their ""normal"" market share, the company says this is not enough demand to absorb the excess supply coming from defaulting homeowners and will likely make for a poor spring and summer buying season. Survey respondents in April reported that potential first-time buyers are having trouble finding foreclosed homes in move-in ready condition.