Market Studies

The Federal Reserve released a new rendition of its market-gauging Beige Book Wednesday. Economic activity on the whole has improved, but residential and commercial real estate were again branded as hindering growth and recovery. Half of the 12 Fed districts reported pockets of weakening in their single-family markets. Most signs of improvement came from agents and brokers in Florida and Philadelphia. Seven of the districts described commercial real estate as improved but only slightly, while five districts noted that their markets were flat.

The climb towards an expected 10 percent delinquency rate for loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) has slowed, according to the latest index results from Fitch Ratings. The agency reports that late-pays retreated two basis points to end March at 8.74 percent, with delinquencies falling for four of the five major property types. At the same time, Trepp says loss severity is the lowest it's been since the company began reporting, with the majority of loans liquidated in March having losses of less than 2 percent.

With foreclosure activity somewhat erratic in recent months along the country's West Coast, time-to-foreclose remains the one true constant in that it continues to increase across the board. ForeclosureRadar has released its monthly report on March foreclosure activity for its coverage area of the five West Coast states. The foreclosure timeline in Nevada extended by more than 16 percent in one month's time to 322 days. In California, the increase was smaller at 4 percent, bumping the state's timeline up to 302 days.

Due to a drop in hirings, mortgage sector jobs lost traction last year, going from a net gain in 2009 to a net loss in 2010, according to an industry report released this week. Layoffs in real estate finance outnumbered hirings by 3,100 jobs last year. In 2009, hirings exceeded layoffs by more than 8,000. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show employment in the mortgage sector has fallen more than 50 percent over the last five years.

Recent improvements in the job market are translating into falling subprime delinquency rates. At the same time, prices on subprime credit-default swaps (CDS) have risen for five straight months. Multiple reports on the secondary market signal growing investor appetite for subprime mortgage bonds and finance instruments like CDS, which transfer the risk of default from the bond holder to the seller of the swap. According to Fitch, subprime delinquencies are dropping sharply with cured loans up by as much as 50 percent for some vintages.

Mortgage servicers had been completing over 100,000 loan modifications per month since late 2009, but that streak came to an end in February. HOPE NOW reports that 87,083 homeowners received permanent loan modifications - through both proprietary and government programs - during the month of February. That's about 14 percent fewer than the previous month and the first time the organization's modification tally has fallen below the 100K mark in nearly a year and a half.

Analysis of home prices through the end of February by CoreLogic shows a year-over-year decline of 6.7 percent when distressed properties - REO and pre-foreclosure short sales - are included in the numbers. February's drop marked the seventh straight month that CoreLogic has recorded a decline in its national home price index. But take out the distressed factor, and the company says home prices are showing signs of stability, down just 0.1 percent from a year ago.

Clear Capital reports home prices in the western part of the country are sliding again, down 4.3 percent over the first three months of this year. The company says the West region, taken on the whole, has now officially entered double-dip territory, with home values hitting lows not seen since 2001. Across the rest of the U.S., though, Clear Capital says negative forecasts have been ""overstated,"" as prices in the other three regions have managed to find a bottom in the midst of ongoing foreclosure pressures and the traditionally slow winter season.

The majority of Americans say walking away from a mortgage should never be an option for homeowners, even those who are struggling to make their payments, according to a survey conducted by FindLaw.com. No reliable figures exist to pinpoint exactly how many homeowners choose strategic default, which entails walking away and refusing to make monthly payments, but industry experts agree that it has become a growing concern in the fallout of the housing crisis.

The commercial mortgage research firm Trepp LLC says the delinquency rate for loans held in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) edged higher in March, but the agency says it's seeing clear signs that the market is starting to heal. Trepp reports that the percentage of CMBS loans 30-plus days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO rose 3 basis points last month to 9.42 percent. It's the highest delinquency rate ever recorded by the company, but the smallest month-over-month increase in more than two years.