Market Studies

For the second week in a row, mortgage rates continued to drop. Freddie Mac reported the rates of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.95 percent (0.6 point), and Bankrate reporting a drop as well, from 5.16 percent last week to 5.09 percent (.45 point) this week. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.22 percent (0.7 point) this week, down from last week's 4.27 percent.

CoreLogic, a California-based provider of information, analytics, and business services, announced a new property report, the Listing and Market Activity Report, on Tuesday. The new report combines Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data with data from the CoreLogic public record database to provide a property's value, statistics on home price changes, foreclosure rates and ratios, as well as REO, foreclosure, and short sale indicators.

RealtyTrac has released its year-end 2010 foreclosure sales report, which shows that foreclosure homes accounted for nearly 26 percent of all U.S. residential sales last year, down from 29 percent of all sales in 2009 but up from 23 percent in 2008. The report also shows that the average sales price of these foreclosure properties was more than 28 percent below the average sales price of properties not in the foreclosure process - up from a 27 percent average discount in 2009 and 22 percent in 2008.

Existing home sales rose again in January, for the third consecutive month, with the annual rate of 5.36 million marking the first time in seven months that sales activity was higher than a year earlier. Home sales are now 5.3 percent above the 5.09 million level in January 2010. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the improvement is good but could be better. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $158,800 in January, down 3.7 percent from January 2010.

As the housing market struggles to get back on its feet, one element holding it back is the prevalence of fraud that increases in times of trouble. In December the CoreLogic Fraud Index revealed fraud losses for 2010 were estimated to be $11 billion. In the past week, the FBI has reported several convictions for mortgage fraud schemes all over the country. The agency says scams involving false promises and fraudulent sales pitches will continue to be a major focus.

They say ""it's all in the numbers,"" but what if the numbers don't match up, in fact don't even come close? The real estate data and analytics firm CoreLogic has released a market report in which the company claims 2010 home sales estimates from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are overstated by 15 to 20 percent, or about 1.5 million homes. NAR says it's Corelogic's numbers that are off. Both parties agree that the issue lies in the methodology, compounded by the volatility and turbulence of today's market.

While recent data points to a pickup in sales activity, sales prices are down, and though mortgage rates remain at record-lows, few people are qualifying for loans. Overall, confidence in the housing market has been shaken. Add to that list the woes of agents and other professionals whose job security depends on the success of the housing market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in the real estate subsector has risen from 6.6 percent in October 2010 to 8.3 percent in January 2011.

The percentage of distressed properties in home purchase transactions climbed to its highest level in nearly a year last month, according to an industry report released Tuesday. The distressed property index tracked as part of the report indicates that the share of sales transactions involving distressed homes climbed to 49.6 percent in January. Comments from real estate agents collected as part of the survey confirms the growing share of distressed properties, particularly in hard-hit markets.

Data released by Standard & Poor's Tuesday show that the S&P-Case-Shiller home price index declined by 3.9 percent quarter-over-quarter during the last three months of 2010. The closely watched gauge is down 4.1 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2009. The agency warns that home prices are edging dangerously close to cycle lows, and a full-fledged double dip. Home prices in 11 major markets hit their lowest levels in December since prices peaked in 2006 and 2007.

The housing crisis and the financial downturn that followed, without question, have profoundly altered the consumer lending landscape. According to the financial advisory firm Deloitte, one change that may be underappreciated is the rapid emergence of an important customer segment that could have powerful implications for lenders - the first-time defaulter. A survey conducted by the firm found that 11 percent of banking customers have experienced a negative credit event for the first time in their lives within the last two years.