Market Studies

In a rare break from what has been the norm throughout the recession, this weekend saw no bank closings. Since January 2008, more than 280 banks and thrifts have collapsed, most as a direct result of problems in the real estate markets. The research firm Foresight Analytics estimates that 200, and possibly 300 to 400, banks are at risk of failure over the next 12 to 24 months, but the company says a number of community banks have begun to shed some of their problem commercial real estate loans.

Freddie Mac released the results of its second quarter Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Monday. The index measures property values based on home loans originated in Q2 and purchased by Freddie and its sibling mortgage financier Fannie Mae. The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series for the United States registered a 3.1 percent increase in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. For the first time since the second quarter of 2009, prices rose in all nine Census divisions.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) offered the industry a ray of hope when it reported Thursday that foreclosure starts were down nearly 10 percent in Q2, but the brightness quickly faded when Lender Processing Services (LPS) released its own dataset. MBA's numbers were based on data through the end of June. LPS reports that by the end of July, foreclosure starts had jumped back up by 24.5 percent. It's the fourth highest level ever recorded by the company.

High levels of unemployment and the strain of housing costs continue to keep consumers mired in financial distress, according to data released by the nonprofit credit counseling agency CredAbility. While economic and mortgage duress is the underlying theme of the agency's second-quarter findings, CredAbility noted that consumers' net worth has actually increased for the past five quarters as they continue to pay down debt and, in some parts of the country, benefit from stabilizing housing prices.

Home sales activity in Illinois paused in July after nearly a year of home sale gains statewide. The lull is reported to be caused by the rush to meet the homebuyer tax credit deadline combined with weak job and economic reports. According to the Illinois Association of Realtors, the state's single-family and condo sales totaled 8,135 in July 2010, down 29.7 percent from July 2009's 11,566 homes. The median price was also down from $167,185 in July 2009 to $160,000 last month.

Industry experts and regulators have been issuing dire warnings for months that the more than $1 trillion in commercial mortgages coming due over the next couple of years could be a hurdle that the real estate sector - and the entire national economy, for that matter - can't clear. But the research firm Trepp LLC says it's seeing a strong increase in the number of loans within commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are being paid off in full at maturity. Fifty percent were paid off in July, the most since December 2008.

The number of underwater homeowners has declined for the second consecutive quarter. CoreLogic reports that 11 million borrowers owed more on the loan than their home was worth at the end of June. That equates to 23 percent of all residential properties with mortgages, and is down from 11.2 million, or 24 percent, at the end of March. It seems like good news on the surface, but the company says foreclosures, rather than meaningful price appreciation, were the primary driver behind the change in negative equity.

Mortgage interest rates are already at their lowest level in decades, and this week, they headed even lower. The descent was prompted largely by fears that another housing downturn could hamper the economic recovery, after July's home sales took a deeper plunge than expected. Freddie Mac reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now averaging 4.36 percent, and 15-year mortgages are at 3.86 percent. Bankrate says the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate also slipped to a new record low of 5.22 percent.

Foreclosure starts dropped during the second quarter and the inventory of homes in the process of foreclosure fell for the first time since 2006, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday. Loans 90 days or more past due also decreased. But it's a different story at the other end of the spectrum. After declining since the beginning of 2009, the number of 30-day delinquencies is going up. Overall, 13.97 percent of the nation's mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure at the end of Q2, down from 14.01 percent three months earlier.

Last Thursday, lenders reached 100,000 foreclosures in the tri-county South Florida region since the real estate crash began in 2007, according to the consulting firm CondoVultures.com. The company put South Florida's real estate crash into perspective by pointing out that lenders have repossessed an average of 75 properties per day since January 2007. The number of bank repossessions there are expected to decrease, though, since foreclosure filings for the year are down by roughly one-third compared to 2009.