CoreLogic has released its 2023 Hurricane Risk Report, shedding light on the evolving landscape of hurricane risk in the face of climate change by analyzing risks for single-family residences (SFRs) and multifamily residences (MFRs) along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. From June 1-November 30, hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean increases substantially, as does the probability of wind- and flooding-related property damage for the millions of homes along the U.S. coastline–from Texas to Maine.
This year, CoreLogic has identified that more than 32 million single family residences (SFRs) and an additional one million multi-family residences (MFRs) are at moderate or more significant risk of sustaining damage from potential hurricane-force winds. This damage would have a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $11.6 trillion. Approximately 7.8 million homes, with a combined RCV of $2.6 trillion, have direct or indirect coastal exposure, making them susceptible to storm surge flooding.
"CoreLogic remains committed to empowering the industry with reliable insights and innovative solutions that help safeguard people, businesses and communities from the escalating impacts of climate change,” said Tom Larsen, Senior Director for CoreLogic Insurance Solutions. “Insurers and lenders should adapt to these changes by deepening their understanding of property risk, embracing proactive loss prevention measures and collaborating with stakeholders across the industry to ensure long-term resilience."
CoreLogic’s 2023 Hurricane Risk Report has also identified major U.S. metros at greater risk for hurricane damage. More than 4.3 million SFRs and MFRs in the New York City metro area are at risk of hurricane-force winds. These properties, spanning New York City, Newark, and Jersey City, equate to a combined RCV of $2.4 trillion at risk. Other major metro areas with substantial hurricane wind risk are the Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach areas that have 2.1 million SFRs and MFRs, each, and a combined RCV of $649.8 and $585 billion, respectively.
In making its analysis, CoreLogic analyzed historical data, climate patterns and predictive models in conjunction with its property database and suite of climate change models to forecast the potential impacts of hurricanes on coastal and neighboring regions by mid-century.
CoreLogic research suggests that, by the year 2050, more powerful storms, a rise in sea level and warmer atmospheric temperatures will give hurricanes a greater capacity to hold more moisture. Simultaneously, warmer sea surface temperatures give storms the fuel to penetrate further inland to locations previously shielded from consequential damage. CoreLogic has found that the biggest increase in homes at risk of damage from hurricane-force winds are in the counties furthest from the coast, who had previously only experienced dissipated winds. However, by mid-century, homeowners may need to consider how to mitigate and recover from hurricane wind damage as storms travel further inland, exposing more homes to hurricane force winds.