Tag Archives: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The report, coming just three days before the end of the first quarter, was an improvement over the first two GDP reports that showed the economy contracted by 0.1 percent then improved by 0.1 percent. At 0.4 percent, the annualized fourth-quarter growth rate was the weakest since Q1 2011, when the economy grew at 0.1 percent. While the revised numbers are hardly anything to get excited about, they could give the economy a running start as it heads into the second quarter.

The sad fact of the budget sequestration being played out in Washington is how avoidable it was. The sadder fact is that however temporary it might prove to be--and that appears from a distance to be more of a wish than a forecast--it will affect real people, and not well. The effects of sequestration go beyond the impact of jobs loss because defense or other contractors are not hired or because federal workers are furloughed. The effects will put even more homeowners at risk of delinquency, or worse, foreclosure, just at a time when the housing sector is recovering.

Personal income dropped $505.5 billion, or 3.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) fell $491.4 billion, or 4.0 percent, in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.2 billion, or 0.2 percent in January. In December, personal income increased $353.4 billion, or 2.6 percent, DPI increased $325.7 billion, or 2.7 percent, and PCE increased $14.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The nation's economy increased at a 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Last month, in the advance GDP release, BEA had reported the nation's economy contracted by 0.1 percent, the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected the turnaround, but to a stronger 0.5 percent growth rate.

President Obama unleashed a predictable firestorm when he proposed during the State of the Union address that the minimum wage be increased to $9.00 an hour from the current $7.25. The reactions were expected: conservative economists criticizing the suggestion while progressives either endorsed it outright or noted the proposal was less than the $9.50 minimum wage proposed by then-candidate Obama.

If businesses had any reluctance to hire in December because of fiscal cliff concerns, they didn't make up for it in January: Payrolls expanded by 157,000, down from December, but the unemployment rate moved to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent a month earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. Job growth for December, originally reported at 155,000, was revised upward to 196,000. November's growth was revised to 247,000 from 161,000.

Personal income jumped a staggering 2.6 percent in December, almost four times the 0.7 increase economists forecast, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday. Personal consumption spending rose 0.2 percent, slightly below the expected 0.3 percent increase. The sharp December gain came from special dividends paid by many companies in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates, which were tied into negotiations to avoid the ""fiscal cliff.""

With a nod to the report the nation’s economy had contracted in the fourth quarter, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted Wednesday to continue its program of purchasing $40 million a month of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and to maintain the target Fed Funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent.

Battered by storms and droughts, real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday. The decrease marks the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected a weak 1.0 percent growth compared with the 3.1 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. The GDP downturn does not automatically signal a return to recession, which is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Two housing reports in the week just demonstrated, yet again, economists are not infallible. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales for December: 4.94 million against a consensus forecast of 5.1 million. Then on Friday, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly 369,000 new homes were sold in December compared with a consensus forecast of 388,000. There are several important housing related reports due out next week, but they will take a backseat to the report on fourth quarter GDP and Friday's report on the employment situation.