Tag Archives: Existing Home Sales

Looking at ongoing trends, Zillow made four major predictions about the course of housing over 2014, and while the company expects conditions next year to be a bit friendlier to homebuyers, that doesn't mean we'll necessarily see more owner-occupied housing. Zillow also combined data on unemployment, population growth, and its own Home Value Forecast to glimpse into what it believes will be the hottest markets in 2014.

Many economists and market observers have suggested the market is poised for continued growth as the recovery enters its third year, and there are positive elements in play that provide some reasons for optimism. Recent loan vintages continue to perform at levels better than historical norms, which has allowed the industry to work through its backlog of distressed assets; foreclosure activity is declining; and housing starts have begun to rise.

The National Association of Realtors recently released the results of a national survey conducted in July 2013 among homebuyers who had made their purchase within the previous year. The data collected brings fresh insights into all phases of the homebuying process and helps recognize emerging trends to help real estate professionals understand the needs and expectations of their clients. What did the study uncover?

Both large institutional and smaller ""mom and pop"" investors have been very active purchasing homes at a steep discount, primarily in housing-bust markets. Industry reports attribute anywhere from 33 to 49 percent of September's home purchases to investors. Whether one-third or nearly one-half of the market, investors are the key force driving home prices, which could signal volatility in coming quarters.

The recent jump in home prices has led to speculation that the rapid surge in home prices could be the sign of a new housing bubble similar to the one that led to the Great Recession. Is it? The not-so-short answer is, not yet. An increase in prices itself does not signal a bubble. An unsustainable increase, not supported by other data, however, would. In the run-up to the 2006 collapse, the higher prices--which had been trending up for four years--led to a sharp uptick in construction wholly unsupported by demographics.

Recent reports from the National Association of Realtors and the Census Bureau/HUD showed sharp increases in unit sales and prices, as well as increases in the inventory of homes for sale for April. Has housing turned the corner? Look again. Sales up, prices up, what's wrong with this picture? The last time both prices and sales of new homes increased in the same month was last September. In all of 2012, sales and prices moved in opposite directions in seven of the 12 months. What of course is missing from the two data sets is any indication of demand.

Economists usually do it with models, so it's rare in economics to be able to conduct a laboratory experiment. Currently, though, we're watching two experiments in different corners of the world that support the idea that stimulus works to repair a troubled economy and austerity doesn't. Japan and the eurozone are, through their actions, demonstrating how economies can move in opposite directions with Japan's stimulus plan succeeding and the eurozone's austerity program failing.

What do you do when you find out Santa Claus doesn't exist? That's the situation former vice presidential candidate/House Budget Committee Chair/potential presidential candidate Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) faces now that the study which provided him with the academic support for budget cuts (aimed principally at so-called entitlements) has been undermined. Harvard economists Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in 2010 published a research paper which held that for countries with debt loads equivalent to or greater than 90 percent of annual economic output, ""median growth rates fall by 1 percent, and average growth falls considerably more.""

The explanation from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) for the drop in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for February has to be viewed with a jaundiced eye. According to the NAR, the PHSI dropped because of the low inventory of homes for sale. Of course, that wasn't offered as an explanation one month earlier, when the inventory of homes for sale dropped to its lowest level since December 1999 and the PHSI increased. But when the PHSI fell in February, and the inventory of homes for sale increased, the still-low inventory became a convenient excuse.

One of the most interesting results of poring through economic data reports is that the details often tell a different story than the headline. The recent report on retail sales is a case in point. While the vast majority of commentators were impressed with a strong 1.1 percent month-over-month increase in overall sales, those who scratched the surface were rewarded for their efforts by learning more than half of the month-over-month increase came from an increase in gasoline station sales as prices. In addition, coverage of the recent report on housing permits and starts was dominated by the increase in both permits and starts. A closer look at the permit-starts data revealed another important phenomenon: a shift from single-family to multifamily construction.