Market Studies

In January, the number of homes still hidden in the shadows fell to 2.2 million, a 28 percent decrease from the January 2010 peak when an estimated three million housing units were in shadow inventory, data from CoreLogic revealed. The 2.2 million units represent a supply of nine months and a year-over-year decline of 18 percent from January 2012, CoreLogic reported. Seriously delinquent loans were the main drivers of shadow inventory, accounting for one million of the distressed properties yet to be released.

New home sales fell 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 in February, the sharpest drop in two years, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Tuesday. At the same time, the months' supply of new homes for sale rose to the highest level since December 2011. The median price of a new home, according to the Census/HUD report, rose $7,200 in February after falling $20,500 in January. The median price is up 2.9 percent in the last year, the weakest year-over-year gain in eight months.

Home prices posted their strongest year-year gain in almost seven years in January according to the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indexes released Tuesday. Home prices rose year-year in all 20 of the cities in the Case-Shiller survey. Month-over-month, the 10-city index improved 0.2 percent in January, while the 20-city index was up 0.1 percent. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 7.3 percent, and the 20-city index rose 8.1 percent. Prices rose in nine cities in January over December while falling in eight.

Veros released Monday its VeroFORECAST update for the next 12 months, predicting price appreciation in 75 percent of markets. Veros' future home price index (HPI) forecast projects significant strengthening and improvement across most markets. On average, Veros expects 2.2 percent price appreciation over the next year. This is the third consecutive quarter in which the index has shown forecast appreciation. As of the March update, 75 percent of U.S. markets are expected to see appreciation, while the remaining 25 percent are expected to experience declining home prices.

California saw a month-over-month increase in pending home sales in February, while distressed were down for both REOs and short sales, the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reported. C.A.R.'s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) was up 8.7 percent to 110.2 in February, up from a revised 101.4 in January. The index is based on signed contracts. Overall, distressed property sales accounted for 32.9 percent of sales in February, a decrease from 35.6 percent in January and a steep decline from 53.3 percent a year ago.

Representation and warranty costs remained elevated in the fourth quarter among top originators, though new and outstanding repurchase claims were mixed for large mortgage companies, according to a recent analysis from KBW. The GSEs continued to drive much of the new and outstanding repurchase claims, with Fannie Mae repurchases totaling $1.9 billion in Q4, down from $2.02 billion in Q3, while Freddie Mac repurchases totaled $638 million, down from $819 million, the report revealed.

National home prices continued to recover in January, but prices were still far below their peak, according to the Home Price Index (HPI) report from Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS). In January, national home prices averaged $208,000, up 0.3 percent from December and 6.7 percent year-over-year. However, prices were still 21.4 percent below their June 2006 peak. The state that led with the biggest monthly price increase was Georgia, where prices were up 1.6 percent. Three hard-hit states--Arizona, California, and Florida--saw respective price gains of 1 percent, 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent.

While the trend of low mortgage rates seen in the last year has stirred up housing activity and helped the market, Pro Teck Valuation Services posits a major question in its latest Home Value Forecast (HVF): Why have home prices in some markets been less responsive to low rates? The writers of the report named three dominant reasons. First, they note that credit scores for many households took a hit during and after the crisis as a result of loan modifications, foreclosures, and job losses, ""and the breadth of the impact has been sufficient to affect millions of households who now much become or are already renters.""

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Improving Markets Index (IMI) showed no signs of slowing down in March, rising for its seventh consecutive month. According to NAHB, 274 metros are now on the mend, a net gain of 15 since February. While 19 markets were dropped, 34 new areas were added, including Birmingham, Alabama; Santa Barbara, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; and Bloomington, Indiana. For the second straight month, metros in all 50 states are represented on the list.

A study released by American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and the National Association of Realtors suggested homes in close proximity to public transportation were much more resilient when faced with price declines during the recession. Data from the study found property values for homes near public transportation performed 41.6 percent better on average compared to homes not in ""transit sheds."" The study compared property values from 2006 to 2011 for homes located near public transit systems and homes that were in a non-transit areas in five regions--Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis-St.Paul, Phoenix, and San Francisco.