Market Studies

As interest rates stay low, housing affordability across the country remained strong in the first quarter but showed signs of weakening, according to data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). According to the index, 73.7 percent of new and existing-homes sold in the first quarter of this year were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $64,400. In the fourth quarter of last year, 74.9 percent of homes were considered to be affordable to median-income earners.

U.S. households experienced higher levels of financial distress in the first quarter as they faced budget constraints and a drop in the savings rate, according to the CredAbility Consumer Distress Index. With a score below 70 indicating a state of financial distress, households barely stayed out of distress with a score of 70.7 out of 100 in the first quarter of this year, down from 71.77 in the previous quarter, CredAbility reported.

The recent rebound in residential real estate investment and housing prices is proving the old adage, Real estate is local. While national indexes paint a picture of a recovering housing market, a closer look reveals quite a wide range of activity across the country. In general, those markets that fared worst during the housing downturn are the ones gaining the most from the recovery, according to CoreLogic's MarketPulse report released Tuesday.

Despite still sluggish new home sales, builder confidence improved in May for the first time since December, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Wednesday. All three components of the HMI improved in May. The reading on current home sales increased four points to 48 from 44 (revised from the initially reported 45), the outlook for sales in the next six months rose to 53 from 52 (revised down from April's reading of 53), and the measure of buyer traffic rose to 33 from April's unrevised 30.

While home prices are rising today nearly as fast as they did during the peak bubble years of 2005 and 2006, Trulia reassures bubble-phobes that they can rest easy in its latest report. According to Trulia's findings, home prices are still 7 percent undervalued nationally, having come down from a peak of 39 percent overvalued in 2006. After the bubble burst, prices fell to being 15 percent undervalued at the end of 2011. With prices still undervalued relative to fundamentals, Trulia insists that today's rapid improvements still qualify as a rebound, not a new bubble.

Sales for single-family residences dropped in the first quarter of this year, marking the first decrease since the fourth quarter of 2010, The Warren Group reported. Single-family home sales in the state fell year-over-year by 3.5 percent to 4,067 in the first quarter. Although sales were down, prices were up. The median price for a single-family home in Connecticut rose by 9.3 percent to $235,000 in the first quarter, up from $215,000 a year ago.

In the first quarter of this year, mortgage originations increased, but total outstanding mortgage debt decreased, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Delinquencies also improved over the quarter while foreclosure notices declined, according to the report. Total household debt--including mortgages, credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans--declined 1 percent to $11.23 trillion. The two main drivers of the quarterly decline were abating mortgage and credit card debt.

The national mortgage delinquency rate might be ""stubbornly high,"" according to TransUnion, but the delinquency rate would actually reflect normal levels seen 10 years ago if cure or foreclosure timelines were shortened. According to TransUnion, the first quarter national mortgage delinquency rate (60-plus delinquencies) was 4.56 percent, which is more than double the pre-crisis norm. However, when aging, 180-plus delinquencies were taken out of the equation, a new TransUnion analysis found the delinquency rate would actually be around 1 percent.

The available supply of foreclosures and short sales previously stunted the recovery for new home sales, according to CoreLogic's May MarketPulse report. Though, now that the supply of distressed homes and existing-homes for sale has fallen, there's more room for the new home sales market to expand. Citing data from the Census Bureau, CoreLogic reported new home sales have increased 19 percent from a year ago in March. Most new home sales are also concentrated in hard-hit suburban metro areas, which bring an economic stimulus to areas devastated by the housing recession.

A report from Redfin shows 73 percent of offers in April faced competition, down from a peak of 79 percent in February but slightly up from 70 percent last April. Two markets that cooled from March to April were San Francisco and Washington DC, where bidding-war rates fell 0.8 and 5.8 percentage points, Redin reported. The report also found the most common components of a winning offer were: conventional loan (61.7 percent) and a higher-than-asking offer price (51.9 percent).