Market Studies

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.42 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending May 9, up from last week, when it averaged 3.35 percent. Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac, explained the rise in fixed rates this week was a reaction to April's better than expected employment report.

Foreclosure activity in April fell to a 74-month low across the country, but many judicial states are experiencing rising foreclosures. Furthermore, judicial foreclosure auctions reached a 30-month high, according to RealtyTrac's April U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. April's scheduled judicial foreclosure auctions, which reached their highest level in 30 months, demonstrated a 22 percent monthly increase and a 31 percent yearly increase. In contrast, non-judicial foreclosure auctions reached an 88-month low, having fallen 43 percent from last April.

First time claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 4 dropped 4,000 to, 323,000, again the lowest level in more than five years the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected initial claims to increase to 335,000. First time jobless claims for the week ended April 27 were revised up to 327,000 from the originally reported 324,000.

TransUnion reported the national mortgage delinquency rate recorded its biggest improvement since the credit bureau began keeping track in 1992. In the first quarter of this year, the mortgage delinquency rate, which includes 60-plus delinquencies, stood at 4.56 percent. The figure represents a 21 percent decline from a year ago and a 12 percent decrease from the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to the improvement on a national level, all 50 states plus Washington D.C. saw their mortgage delinquency rates fall over the last year.

After coming to a ""turning point"" last year, the housing market is now stabilizing, according to Clear Capital's monthly Home Data Index. ""2013's forecasted trajectory is one of moderation and stabilization,"" according to Clear Capital. Home prices rose 7.2 percent on an annual basis in April. Last April's annual price change was a decline of 1.4 percent year-over-year.

Asking home prices posted the strongest gains in cities where job growth was also solid, according to Trulia. In a recent report, Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist, provided two reasons to explain the link between jobs and housing: job growth attracts newcomers to an area, who look for housing, and job finders often look for their own place to rent or buy. ""Young adults with jobs are much less likely to live with their parents than those without jobs. Furthermore, stable jobs will set this generation free to form their own households and start thinking about homeownership,"" Kolko added.

In the latest in its Transition to ""Normal"" series, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research group examines the residential construction sector, which lost 41 percent of jobs between 2006 and 2011 due to the housing bust. If housing starts return to normal levels in 2016, residential construction employment is predicted to rise to nearly 2.5 million jobs, an increase of 412,000 over current levels. Despite that gain, homebuilding employment is forecast to remain nearly 1 million less than it was at the peak of the housing boom.

In Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey, more than half of those surveyed (51 percent, up from 48 percent in March) said they expect home prices to climb in the next year, while 10 percent--flat for the fourth straight month--expect declines. Thirty-five percent expect no changes. April's report marks the first time in the survey's three-year history that more than half of respondents projected price gains.

A majority of real estate experts responding to a recent Zillow survey expressed some concern that the Federal Reserve's current policies could lead to another housing bubble. Only 4 percent of respondents are not at all worried about a bubble resulting from the Fed's monetary policy that is keeping mortgage rates down. However, 48 percent see the Fed's policies as ""a little risky,"" and the remaining 48 percent categorized the risk as ""moderate to high risk."" Experts also expect prices to end this year 5.4 percent higher than their level at the start of the year.

Refinances through the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) remained strong as mortgage rates stayed near record-low levels, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) most recent refinance report. In February, 97,738 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans were refinanced under the program, bringing the total to 2.3 million since HARP's April 2009 inception. Underwater borrowers also continued to represent a large share total HARP refinance volume. Year-to-date through February, borrowers with LTVs beyond 105 percent accounted for nearly half of all HARP refinances.