Market Studies

Figures released Friday put July's job loss at 131,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.5 percent, though 71,000 jobs were added to the private sector. A recent report released by the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors revealed job loss as one of the top factors contributing to home foreclosures in the state. Across the country, too many Americans have learned that the loss of one's job can be directly related to the loss of one's home.

The Minneapolis-Saint Paul commercial real estate market is beginning to stabilize, reports locally based NorthMarq. Though downward trends are still continuing in rental rates and vacancy rates continue to rise, residential land is beginning to trade as national homebuilders return to action. NorthMarq expects a long, gradual recovery to begin in late 2010 or early 2011.

Mortgage rates seem to be hitting new record lows on a weekly basis. And this week wasn't any exception, as reports released Thursday by Freddie Mac and Bankrate showed yet another decline in rates for the week ending August 4, 2010. According to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.49 percent, and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to a record low of 3.95 percent. Bankrate reported the same trend of ever-declining rates. The tracking company said 30-year fixed-rate mortgages came in at 4.66 percent, and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.11 percent.

The nation's two largest mortgage companies have published forecasts lowering their projections for home sales and mortgage production, industry-wide. The economists at Fannie Mae are tempering public expectations for the housing market with a candid warning: the headwinds in housing have picked up. Freddie Mac's economic team slimmed down its projected numbers, but said the market has gained enough momentum to carry through the occasional setbacks.

The volume of commercial real estate assets with outstanding distress grew by $6.3 billion in June, but it was the smallest monthly increase since late 2008, according to the research firm Real Capital Analytics. While the slow-down in the growth rate can be attributed in part to the lack of large portfolios to fall into trouble during the month, the analysts at Real Capital say they are also seeing a marked increase in workout activity by lenders.

Sales of Miami and surrounding area homes increased sharply in June, according to MDA DataQuick. During the month, 9,296 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties, up 18.3 percent from May and more than 20 percent higher than a year ago.

The nation's REO stock fell 0.6 percent in May to 524,000 properties, according to Barclays Capital. In addition, the research firm estimates that housing's shadow inventory - which Barclays defines as the supply of homes nearing REO status - declined by 2.3 percent to 4.02 million properties. A separate study released by Clear Capital supports the assumption that indeed, there are fewer REOs influencing the market. The company says the percentage of bank-owned homes sold as compared to all properties sold dropped 22.7 percent during the May-July period.

Bolstered by a slight increase in both purchase and refinance activity, total mortgage loan application volume edged up 1.3 percent for the week ending July 30, 2010, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported Wednesday. According to MBA's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, the purchase index jumped 1.5 percent from the week prior, and the refinance index inched up 1.3 percent.

Stabilization for commercial real estate has become increasingly dependent on the re-pricing and deleveraging of property positions, according to an industry report released by two research firms this week. They say the commercial real estate recovery is now less contingent on access to capital, given that liquidity has returned to many markets. In fact, it is in some cases scarily reminiscent of the pre-credit crisis environment, with equity sitting on the sidelines in abundance. And lenders, they say, have the ability to re-price assets at a level that will clear the market.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has just $3.5 billion in its capital reserve account. The decline, though, is the result of a shuffling of funds. FHA moved $9.8 billion from its capital reserves to its financing account, the fund used to cover insurance claim payouts and losses. The transfer bumped this loss reserve account up to $29.6 billion and suggests that the FHA may be preparing for another wave of defaults and mortgage insurance claims, although so far this year, claims are coming in well below projections made at the end of 2009.