Market Studies

Despite a continued crackdown, mortgage fraud is still a major cause of concern within the industry. In fact, according to the 2009 mortgage loan fraud study just released by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the number of mortgage fraud suspicious activity reports (SARs) filed last year edged up 4 percent compared to the previous 12 months. Mortgage SARs were most prevalent in the Los Angeles and Miami metro areas, both of which reported more than 10,000 filings in 2009.

After tumbling 30 percent in May in the wake of the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, pending home sales continued to edge down in June, hitting the lowest level recorded in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday. NAR's pending sales index is a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed during the month. It declined 2.6 percent from May to June, and is 18.6 percent below year-ago levels. The trade group says the weak numbers imply closing activity will languish at least through August.

Mortgage borrowers with balances over $1 million are faring just as poorly, but not worse, than borrowers with lower balances, according to Moody's Investors Service. Based on the agency's data of securitized private-label mortgages, as of June 2010, mortgages originated from 2005 to 2008 are 60 or more days delinquent at the same rate, 28 percent, for both the average borrower and borrowers with million-dollar-plus mortgages. Moody's says the data also contradicts conventional wisdom that strategic defaults are more prevalent among rich borrowers.

Home sales in the Lone Star State are on the rise. According to the latest Texas Quarterly Housing Report released Monday by the Texas Association of Realtors, a total of 66,079 existing single-family homes were sold during the second quarter of this year, soaring 14 percent from the same quarter last year. This marked the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increases.

The number of modifications on commercial real estate loans held in securities trusts has accelerated dramatically in 2010, according to Trepp LLC. So far in 2010, loan modifications have already surpassed the total number of mods done in 2008 and 2009 combined, Trepp reports. At this pace, 2010 modifications are set to triple those completed last year, and with servicers stepping up resolutions of troubled commercial loans, increases in delinquency numbers are beginning to moderate.

The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill is expected to have a grave--and costly--impact on coastal area real estate. According to a recent report by CoreLogic, the impact of the spill on home values in coastal communities already affected by the spill is expected to range from $648 million over one year to as much as $3 billion over five years. And in the event that the unlikely, worst-case scenario occurs and the spill reaches around the Florida Keys and up the Atlantic coast of Florida, the additional losses could reach up to $28 billion over five years, CoreLogic said.

Real estate data provider Altos Research is taking a very bearish outlook on the housing market. The company says that ominous shadow inventory of distressed properties hanging over the industry will lock home prices into a downward trajectory for the remainder of this year, with property values starting out 2011 even lower than they were in 2009. Add to that the fact that the pool of viable buyers out there is shrinking, and you've got an equation that Altos says is a sign of real market weakness.

The percentage of loans 90 or more days past due held by the nation's largest mortgage company has declined for three months in a row. According to a new monthly summary report released by Fannie Mae on Friday, the GSE's single-family serious delinquency rate dropped 15 basis points to 5.15 percent in May. That follows a decline of 17 basis points in April and 12 basis points in March. The March reading was the first time Fannie's delinquency rate had dropped since March 2007, when it was a mere 0.62 percent.

Despite recent increases in a number of the industry's home price measurements, and even an uptick in the company's own index of residential property prices, Fiserv Inc. says the gains will be short-lived. The information technology firm is forecasting home prices to fall by another 4.9 percent over the next 12 months, as unemployment remains high, mortgage rates rise, and markets such as Florida, Arizona, and Nevada add even more distressed properties to their inventories.

Though volume remains low on an absolute level, commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations seem to be on the journey upward. According to the Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association, second quarter 2010 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations inched up 1 percent from the same period last year and surged 35 percent from the first quarter of this year.