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Tag Archives: IHS Global Insight

Q3 GDP Revision Pushes Economy to Fastest Growth in a Decade

According to BEA, the latest quarterly estimate includes improved contributions from consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent compared to Q2's 2.5 percent gain. Also improved in the third report was the contribution from nonresidential fixed investment, which increased 8.9 percent. Residential fixed investment—a measure of the housing market's direct contribution to economic activity—increased just 3.2 percent.

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GDP Inches Upward In BEA’s Third Estimate

According to BEA, the turnaround in the second quarter largely reflected positive contributions from consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and both residential and non-residential fixed investment.

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Economic Growth in U.S. to Outpace Global Progress

As we head toward the close of 2013, many wonder what the new year will bring for economic growth, what plans the Federal Reserve has for its stimulus, and how employment and the housing market will take shape. IHS Global Insight recently released its 2014 outlook, addressing these and other factors affecting the U.S. and global economies in the coming year. IHS says global economic growth will increase from 2.5 percent this year to 3.3 percent next year, with the U.S. growing 2.6 percent, up from 1.7 percent.

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Housing Starts Impacted by Distressed Inventory

Housing starts declined 8.5 percent from December to January but remain 24 percent above last year's rates, according to recent data from the Census Bureau and HUD. Capital Economics points out that the recent decline is largely driven by the multifamily sector, while single-family starts actually rose 0.8 percent over the month. The general upward trend in housing starts is tied to recent declines in distressed inventory, according to Capital Economics. ""[H]omebuilders are starting to benefit from the dwindling supplies of deeply discounted distressed homes, which for a while were next to impossible for builders to compete with,"" the analytics firm stated.

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Monthly Drop in Home Sales No Cause for Despair

As the National Association of Realtors reported, home sales dropped in December. However, Capital Economics warns this should be no cause for despair. ""[M]onthly changes are volatile,"" the analytics firm stated Tuesday, adding that three-month averages are often more indicative of market trends and the numbers from a single month. Based on the three-month average, existing-home sales are still on the rise.

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Last Jobs Report Before the Election: Will It Have Any Impact?

Friday morning's jobs report contained some good news with the bad, but analysts doubt there's enough strength in either direction to influence the upcoming presidential election. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.9 percent in October from 7.8 percent in September. Even though the rate increased, the upward movement was due to a rise in entrants into the labor market, not a decrease in jobs. In a response from Capital Economics, economist Paul Ashworth wrote, ""Overall, this report is sure to be spun politically by both sides."" Economist Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said, ""Politically there was something for both presidential candidates to grab onto.""

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IHS Offers Electoral Perspective on Wisconsin

The company released an examination of the Badger State’s economy as part of its ongoing series on swing states in the 2012 election. Whereas states like Colorado and New Hampshire have fair-to-middling economic pictures, IHS called Wisconsin’s employment situation in 2012 ""grim.""

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IHS Puts New Hampshire Under Microscope for Swing State Report

IHS Global Insight's examination of presidential swing states continued Thursday with a look at New Hampshire's relatively shaky economy. Growth performance in the Granite State has been mostly unimpressive. The state's 0.4 percent average job gain for the first two quarters of the year included payroll shrinkage across a number of sectors, including manufacturing, retail trade, finance, administrative support, and healthcare.

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