Tag Archives: Housing Supply

Almost half of the 111 economists and real estate experts polled this month by MacroMarkets are forecasting a double-dip in home prices to happen this year, and not a single panelist expects property values to recover to the pre-bubble trend for at least the next five years. MacroMarkets was founded by Robert Shiller, namesake of the closely-watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index. He says the deteriorating outlook among panel members has been influenced by the unabated foreclosure crisis and persistently weak market fundamentals.

Radar Logic's 25-metro-area RPX Composite price slumped to its lowest value last week since its peak in June 2007. Based on data from home sales that closed during the 28 days ending January 3, 2011, the value was at $183.18 per square foot. That's 34 percent lower than the 2007 peak value of $278. The company says last week's reading is lower than the price for any other date since May 14, 2003.

The continuing depreciation of residential property values at the end of last year has made housing look more undervalued relative to income than ever before, according to analysts at the research firm Capital Economics. Based on industry home price data, the company says in the fourth quarter, housing was 15-21 percent undervalued as measured against individuals' disposable income. That gap has widened from just three months earlier, and the analysts say more forced sales of foreclosed properties will push prices even lower.

Fannie Mae's latest national housing survey finds that Americans are more confident about the stability of home prices than they were at the beginning of 2010, even though they lack confidence in the strength of the economy. Seventy-eight percent of respondents to the GSE's fourth-quarter survey said they believe housing prices will hold steady or increase over the next twelve months. However, almost two-thirds said they believe the economy is on the wrong track. The number of delinquent borrowers who say they have seriously considered defaulting declined to 19 percent.

For the first time in six months, home sales in the 54 U.S. markets surveyed by RE/MAX are greater than one year ago, the company said in its newly released January housing report. RE/MAX says the year-over-year sales difference has improved for three consecutive months now with several cities experiencing double digit growth to lead the trend. Home prices, however, were 4.6 percent lower than in January 2010.

They say ""it's all in the numbers,"" but what if the numbers don't match up, in fact don't even come close? The real estate data and analytics firm CoreLogic has released a market report in which the company claims 2010 home sales estimates from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are overstated by 15 to 20 percent, or about 1.5 million homes. NAR says it's Corelogic's numbers that are off. Both parties agree that the issue lies in the methodology, compounded by the volatility and turbulence of today's market.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that home sales increased in 49 states during the fourth quarter of 2010, with 78 markets experiencing gains from the fourth quarter of 2009. The national average of home sales rose 15.4 percent to an annual rate of 4.80 million in Q4 from 4.16 million in the third quarter. Distressed homes accounted for 34 percent of sales last quarter. Even with foreclosures continuing to enter the inventory pipeline, NAR says they've been selling well and housing supplies have trended down.

Homeownership levels posted Monday by the U.S. Department of Commerce are, at 66.5 percent, the lowest they have been since the fourth quarter of 1998. By contrast the rental vacancy rate decreased 0.9 percent from the rate in the third quarter of 2010, and is the lowest it has been since the first quarter of 2003. Analysts say the nation's homeownership rate is likely to fall further, as evidenced by a combination of weak housing demand and high supply.

The number of price-reduced homes on the market in December 2010 fell by 7.7 percent from the previous month, according to a report surveying 26 major U.S. markets issued by ZipRealty. Despite the month-to-month decline, the company says the number of homes with a reduced asking price remained high compared to a year earlier, rising 23.4 percent from December 2009. The report also found that in the markets surveyed, the median list price in December was down 3.9 percent from November.

According to RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), a source of real estate data, analytics, and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic, the Baltimore housing market continued to look bleak in December. Based on figures from RBI's newly launched pending home sales index, the average price of homes sold in the Baltimore area dropped 6.6 percent, from $283,269 at the end of 2009 to $264,500 by the end of 2010. At the same time, active listing inventory grew by 10 percent.