Market Studies

A recent report reveals banks that received federal funding from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) have since increased their risk level by about 10 percent. Professors from the Michigan Ross School of Business found that after receiving capital from taxpayers, banks that were bailed out shifted their credit origination toward riskier mortgages, as measured by the borrower's loan-to income ratio and high-risk indicators based on the loan rate. The study concludes that TARP recipients absorbed the riskier mortgages on the market.

How many homeowners in the United States are behind on their mortgage payments? It's 6,373,000, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS). The number is staggering, but it's actually on the decline, down from 6,397,000 as of the end of August, and 6,538,000 at the end of July. LPS has released a few high-level numbers from its mortgage performance report due out later this month, and there's evidence that servicers are pushing loans that have been languishing in non-payment status through the pipeline at a faster pace.

The delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the U.S. have been above 9 percent for nine consecutive months, according to Moody's Investors Service's Delinquency Tracker. Moody's says the rate is now 9.36 percent, up from 9.01 percent reported last month. In addition to rising at a national level, CMBS delinquencies rose in all regions except the Midwest. All property types saw an increase in past-due loans, though multifamily continues to fare the worst.

Average mortgage rates were relatively unchanged this week amid mixed economic and consumer sentiment reports, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable mortgage rates were mixed while fixed mortgage rates held steady remaining near their 60-year lows. The GSE's study puts the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.11 percent, down slightly from 4.12 percent last week. The 15-year fixed rate rose one basis point to 3.38 percent.

Sales of previously owned homes slipped 3 percent between August and September, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Thursday. That follows a jump of nearly 19 percent between July and August. The decline was widely expected as sales activity follows the typical seasonal cycle and heads lower with the mercury in the thermometer. Distressed homes accounted for 30 percent of sales in September. Eighteen percent were foreclosed homes and 12 percent were pre-foreclosure short sales.

The Federal Reserve released a new rendition of its market-gauging Beige Book Wednesday, which provides an assessment of regional conditions from those outside the Fed system and in the field. Reports from the 12 districts indicate that overall economic activity continued to expand in September. On the real estate front, though, home sales remained weak with prices either flat or declining across the entire country. Although commercial construction increased at a slow pace, that sector too was described as ""weak.""

The foreclosure tide has yet to ebb, and the massive supply of bank-owned homes building over the last half-decade has taken its toll on market fundamentals. What's become of all those properties seized by banks? CoreLogic delved into the stats to find out. Looking at the outcomes of 355,000 properties foreclosed on in 2006, the company found that 105,000 were liquidated as REO sales to third-party buyers in six months or less, while more than 20,000 remain part of the industry's REO inventory.

While the homeownership rate falls, rental demand rises bringing rental rates up and apartment vacancies down -- all of which has led Freddie Mac's chief economist to label the multifamily sector a positive signal for the U.S. housing industry. Frank Nothaft says improvement in the economics of apartment management has prompted an increase in structure values, property sales, and new construction. He notes that many newly-formed households are choosing to rent rather than own in the current, unstable economy.

Amid a challenging environment for servicers, CitiMortgage, GMAC, and Ocwen have outperformed major competitors with regards to loss mitigation and foreclosure timelines, according to a recent report from Moody's Investors Service. The company's Servicer Dashboard rates major servicers on their performance from June 2010 to June 2011. Moody's notes that Bank of America's and Chase's performance assessments were affected by large servicing acquisitions and foreclosure moratoria.

The analysts at Barclays Capital say a ""triple-dip"" in home prices will likely materialize by early next year. The term ""triple-dip"" emerged in a Clear Capital report a couple of weeks ago, and Barclays says its analysis corroborates the idea. The research firm warns that home prices will likely slip another 6 to 7 percent over the coming winter months. That would put median prices at a new low for this cycle, in fact 3 percent below the double-dip measurement of last spring.